For Belarus, for McCain!

The U.S. Presidential Election Day is coming closer every day. The duel between two contenders – Barack Obama and John McCain – is becoming tenser and tenser, the whole arsenal of political and PR is being used – from foreign visits and aggressive media propaganda to YouTube videos criticizing candidates’ opponent.

Meanwhile a war with Russian troops broke out in the Northern Georgia, Russian air force attacked Georgian civilian targets, Russian troops occupied a considerable part of Georgian territory. Ukraine is facing the problem of territorial integrity as Russian statements concerning Crimea have never been so harsh. Lukashenka is getting weaker in Belarus; he is losing his ability to manipulate Russia. Belarus president is surrounded by people who have ties with Russian secret services in one way or another and a redistribution of state-controlled property in favor of Russian money is a matter of nearest future.

Russia is slowly restoring once destroyed Soviet empire, by threats, economic means, or rude force as it happened in Georgia. Soviet KGB in the person of its former agents, who are now part of Russian elite, is living through its Golden Age. Those people have never been so strong. They want to gain revenge for the years of humiliation. Huge oil revenues, spy rings in Europe and United States, ability to work with modern tools of influence, and military force, the Soviet legacy – all of that gives them hope for success. Not to mention nearly unanimous support of that imperial policy inside Russia that is being constantly built up by the propaganda machine. That’s a clear menace for security of Russia’s European neighbors, Georgia and Ukraine above all, but also Belarus and Baltic states.

The West doesn’t take that menace seriously. Oil money and business interests keep the mouths shut and the view on the region’s problems quite selective. Unfortunately, the European Union can’t resist Russian pressure on post-Soviet countries without American support. The problems of self-identification and inner organization shortcomings do not allow concentrating on that. Moreover, huge EU economy and the idea of Europe are not reinforced with due political influence.

On the other hand the United States is the only superpower in the world, with high military and diplomatic potential, huge foreign policy influence, and largest economy in the world. Even after having waged wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and experiencing a number of domestic problems, the USA is the strongest global player. That is why Belarusians should really care about who is going to take power in the White House this November.

More than that, it is really important to realize that Belarus is in very special situation. In addition to foreign threats, it is under inner occupation by Lukashenka’s regime. Yes, Lukashenka can probably meet foreign challenges, even from the side of Russia. During his rule he has created an effective “aquarium” to isolate Belarusian from outside problems. But let’s ask a question: is Lukashenka’s position secure in the face of Russian full-scale economic expansion and what will happen if he is no longer a president (that may happen in lots of cases)? Unfortunately, the country’s political elite has been destroyed during Lukashenka’s rule, the politicians has been replaced by officials loyal to Lukashenka. Some of them are effective managers, but do they have the will and knowledge to defend national interests amid chaos which will inevitably reign after Lukashenka’s rule is over? And do Belarusians want to find themselves helpless in the face of Russian domination in that case?

In the case of sudden changes in the country only strong foreign counterbalances will give Belarusians time to reshape political and social organization of Belarus, launch reforms, and make economy stable in the face of outside challenges; or, in another case, not to let dictatorship prevail and support democratic forces in Belarus. Only the United States can be such a counterbalance. But which of the candidates can effectively help Belarus: Barack Obama – a man with clearly insufficient foreign policy experience who appeals to negotiating with dictators and appeasing Russia – or John McCain?

One should start with analyzing their personalities. The difference between them is great, as it is between fermenting Beaujolais Nouveau and seasoned wine.

Barack Obama is young charismatic politician of populist trend with pronounced left-wing views. He is an African American which plays a great role in this campaign, he looks young and he is surrounded by young and ambitious people. He is for changes. However, he’s not quite certain what changes he is for…

On the other hand John McCain is his complete antipode. He is a hero of the Vietnam War. He is a son of American admiral who voluntarily went to Vietnam slaughter-house. He, who was taken prisoner and tortured, knows what totalitarianism is and what freedom costs of. McCain is an experienced politician, veteran of the American political Olympus. He is old, but he is experienced, he is for continuity. He knows a lot about Belarus and he has always been for democracy in my country which earned him a title of Lukashenka’s personal enemy. More than that, he’s been into American foreign politics for years and he knows what to do.

These differences can be clearly seen in Georgia. McCain has immediately and unconditionally condemned Russia for the aggression and urged to draw Russian troops from Georgia. He remains Georgia’s determined advocate after the conflict is formally over. Barack Obama also seems to be for the peace in Georgia, he has even condemned Russia when it was no longer possible to remain silent, but his people have made a clear statement that it is necessary to be friends with Russia and that one shouldn’t sacrifice that friendship for the sake of some Georgia (http://www.newsru.com/world/11aug2008/lobby.html).

Of course, both candidates are prominent and outstanding politicians. That’s why American politics and elections are so good – only the best can reach the election race’s final. However, in my opinion only senator John McCain can make the situation in our region stable once again and secure Belarusians’ long-term interests.