Officials Predict Crisis

Representatives of Belarusian government understand the threat of Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s economical policy. It has been stated by the head of Mises analytical center Yaraslau Ramachuk, who has the text of this report.

Te Belarusian opposition fears growth of Minsk’s dependence from Moscow in connection with the recent $1.5 billion loan from Russia, and a promised $2 billion loan in 2008. The main question is how Minsk would manage this money.

Belarus addressed Russia with a request to give a credit in spring this year after prices for Russian gas and oil raised. The decision to give the loan was adopted during Vladimir Putin’s visit to Minsk in the middle of December.

“Gas price hike has become a shock for the Belarusian economy. And this issue remains of interest at this time, as it is not known how the price over the year 2008 would change,” Vremya Novostei was told by a deputy head of the research center of the Belarusian institute of privatization and management Iryna Tachytskaya. One of these days Gazprom announced that gas price for Belarus will be $199 per 1,000 cubic metres in the first quarter of 2008.

According to Mrs. Tachytskaya, neither this $1.5 billion loan, nor the next $2 billion loans pose a considerable threat: “This would not influence the situation very much. Belarusian economy already depends on Russia, as the Russian market is the most important market for Belarusian goods’ sales. And the competitive ability of Belarusian goods is decreasing lately.” Summing up the results of the period of January-October, Belarus’ adverse balance in trade with Russia is higher than 6 billion dollars.

Independent experts agree that in absence of systemic changes in the Belarusian economy, Belarus’ dependence on Russia would grow. “If the country would rely on economic reforms, if it established contacts with Europe, prospects would be different. But there is a blind wall behind Minsk, and it means that sooner or later Minsk will be with its back to the wall sooner or later,” a well-known Belarusian political analyst Alyaksandr Klaskouski told to Vremya Novostei.

The head of the Belarusian Mises analytical center Yaraslau Ramanchuk declares that Belarusian government understands the danger of the current economical policy. The expert says that he has the text of a report in which influential Belarusian officials predict aggravation of crisis conditions in the economy in the next two years.

“Officials find the problems of trade and pay balance dangerous. It is stated in the report that the concentration of taxpayers and exporters in too high, which lies in the situation when entire branches of economy depend on just a few key enterprises,” Yaraslau Ramanchuk said to Vremya Novostei. As said by the expert, the report authors mention investment mistakes of the government and excessive growth of volume of consumer loans and business loans.

“Despite of the objective analysis of the situation, government experts do not suggest structural transformation believing that problems could be solved by Soviet style methods,” Ramanchuk noted. He supposes that “Russian loans are unlikely to be invested in projects which would allow earning enough money for principal redemption and paying interest on the credit. These money are most likely to be eaten away”.

According to Alyaksandr Klaskouski, “Belarus’ dependence on Russia is connected not only with receiving loans, but with Minsk’s absence of will to make a choice in favour economic reforms”.