Belarusian KGB Awaits Changes

Despite the fact that the appointment of Yury Zhadobin as the head of Belarusian KGB promised staff changes in KGB, no significant changes have taken place after a month in the office.
It allows to conclude that, being a prudent man, Mr. Zhadobin is in no rush to have large scale changes. He is looking around the “household” left by his predecessor. It is notable that during the two and a half years of Stiapan Sukharenka’s office this “household” raised to the height unmatched by any director during Lukashenka’s rule.
 
While in office Mr. Sukharenka significantly raised KGB’s legislative rights and credentials that turned into a considerable increase of KGB’s personnel, financing, improvement of technical equipment, a staff reform, and structural reorganization of the main fields of activities.
 
A serious of new central administrative boards with new colonel and general positions appeared. “Protection of the constitutional interests of the country” emerged as a new main line of KGB’s activities. It resulted in expansion of the Central Administrative Board for protection of the constitutional system and struggle against terrorism (de facto the office’s function is monitoring of political activities). One of its subdivisions deals entirely with persons who “discredit the Republic of Belarus and country’s authority.”
 
Military and technical re-equipment with modern weapons and technology, along with special technical equipment of KGB’s subdivisions for secret operational, operational-technical and special operational activities, was conducted.
 
Thus, in spite of being small in number, KGB again turns into the most powerful and independent organization among the country’s power structures. Moreover, KGB has formal and numerous informal connections with Russia’s special services.
Aforementioned facts allow to conclude that opponents and critics of KGB’s ex-chief underestimate his capabilities. At first glance, KGB’s activities in Belarus seemed to be reduced to struggle against dissidence and opposition, and it was based on personal loyalty to Aliaksandr Lukashenka.
 
However, a closer inspection reveals that it is naïve to suppose that Mr. Sukharenka created a powerful potential for KGB’s support by the highest echelons of authorities inside and outside the country without developing serious plans and schemes for the future.

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Thus, in spite of being small in number, KGB again turns into the most powerful and independent organization among the country’s power structures.

 
Will the today’s situation around KGB be limited by personnel changes only?
 
It is necessary to analyze the official documents that stated the possibility of a nomenclature coup in order to comprehend and forecast future course of actions. One of such documents is Victar Kuchynski’s, deputy of the House of Representatives of the National Convention, staff report presented to Aliaksandr Lukashenka on 08.02.2005 where Mr. Kuchynski gives a reasonably objective evaluation of KGB as a subject of operational and research activities which may “create serious problems for the current authority.” The following is a citation from the report:
 
…The events in Ukraine demonstrate that disloyalty of even a single power department may create serious problems for the current authority. The key factor of the nomenclature coup in Ukraine was Security Service of Ukraine (former Ukraine’s KGB) that supported Mr. Uschenko’s clan.
The model of the events in Ukraine may be projected on Belarus, with potentially dangerous units determined.
According to Article 7 of “Operational and Search Activities” law, the right to conduct operational and search activities on the territory of the Republic of Belarus is granted to operational subdivisions of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, State Security, frontier troops, Security Service of President of the Republic of Belarus, financial investigations department of the Committee of State Control of the Republic of Belarus; customs services, and external intelligence service of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus.
 
"In order to conduct a nomenclature coup, an operational and search agency should have the following resources: infrastructure and agent network on the entire territory of the country; own proper intelligence divisions (for external observation and operational and search activities); operational and search divisions; and own force divisions.
KGB of the Republic of Belarus meets those requirements the most closely. However, staff changes and reforms of the agencies of the state security almost completely exclude the possibility of such a scenario, where KGB supports the opposition and a nomenclature coup.
A spacial analysis is required to determine motivation of a series of officials who attempted to head KGB of the Republic of Belarus but did not meet the requirements of the President due to some objective reasons…”
 
For full text go to http://www.kuchinskij.info/Daddc
 
If we project past events on the current situation, we may conclude that the conditions for if not nomenclature coup but at least for further escalation of tension among ministries and in the country as a whole remains.
 
Today the system of Belarusian national security is described by a significant number of force agencies that have credentials besides KGB. All of these agencies have weapons, technical and material resources, intelligence network, divisions for espionage, external and internal watching, counterespionage, resources for operational and search activities, as well as the ability to carry out professional special secret operations to control not only activities within their field of specialization but also after other state agencies (for example, spying after KGB) and to counteract their activities. As a matter of fact, these activities were conducted against Mr. Sukharenka.
 
Recent scandals are evidence of frailty of the system of cross control that fails to provide national security and the current government. On the contrary, it poses threat to national security.
 
In February of 2005, Mr. Kuchinski reported to Mr. Lukashenka of the attempts to the Committee of State Control to play its own political game. Mr. Kuchinski indicated that the Department of Financial Investigations of the Committee of State Control (DFI CSC) attempted to control the activities of the Office of Public Prosecutor of Belarus, as well as operational and search inspections and State Customs Committee within the Office’s jurisdiction. According to Mr. Kuchinski’s assessment, the Committee of State Control notably surpasses KGB in its influence on the country’s economic security and the body of CEOs of all Belarusian businesses. Revenue Ministry is almost entirely under the control of the Department of Financial Investigations. To remind, DFI CSC is one of operational and search agencies along with the Security Service of the President, agencies of Ministry of Internal Affairs, Committee of Border Services, State Customs Committee, and agencies of espionage of the Ministry of Defense and Office of Central Public Prosecutor.
 
Abundance of agencies inevitably provokes conflicts among them. Moreover, it leads to hypertrophied rivalry when heads of those agencies imitate activities against criminal actions in the country in order to justify the existence of those agencies. Then “plotted” criminal activities gain publicity, and the heads of agencies make up horrifying plots for the public that circulate in media. Stiapan Sukharenka did not escape that trap either.
 
The aforementioned facts are evidence that the system of national security of Belarus needs deep reformation. The reformation should take into account foreign policy, changes in the activities of national security where KGB will remain as the key element of the system.
 
Variants of Possible  Changes
 
Summing up, let’s analyze possible variants of changes in Belarusian force agencies.
We should still count the scenario that was widely discussed in Belarusian media. It is integration of Ministry of Internal Affairs and KGB into one institution. If this scenario takes place, general Zhadobin will clear KGB’s staff and pass its remnants to Mr. Naumov or Mr. Lukashenka. However, that integration of the two agencies will not happen.
 
Another scenario is the following. The sector of operational and search activities will be shared by the following institutions: KGB, Ministry of Internal Affairs, and foreign espionage agency of the Ministry of Defense (MD). Remaining agencies will have to rely on KGB and MD in the questions of operational and search activities.
 
KGB will expand and broaden its activities, since Mr. Zhadobin will become the head of Security Service of President. Furthermore, KGB will head operational structures and special divisions of Customs Committeee and Office of Central Public Prosecutor. It is probable that Border Service will be left in KGB’s jurisdiction as well. To do so, laws of force agencies will be changed, for instance the law of “Operational and Search Activities” and others. It is not a fast process, but it can be completed within two years.

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The majority of informational and operational activities will be in the heads of a single person—Yury Zhadobin. A new force “monster” will be created.

 
As a result, the majority of informational and operational activities will be in the heads of a single person—Yury Zhadobin. A new force “monster” will be created. Thus, Lukashenka will be protected from any possibility of nomenclature coup by using intelligence and security agencies, all functions being in the hands of loyal persons. Operational and search activities will be put in order, and force field in Belarus will be in equilibrium. We should mark that this scenario will threat the very existence of KGB.
 
Will this scenario come true? Time will prove whether we are right or wrong. Apparently, new KGB’s head will not allow comical espionage scandals, stories with “gay” diplomats, Georgian terrorists, and dead rats that appeared on Belarusian TV, capture of young opposition activists and prosecution of cartoonists. Cool-headed, thoughtful, and serious work is expected in all areas.
General Zhadobin, his character allowing to predict so, will perform any Lukashenka’s task—the structure will function efficiently, while keeping low profile. KGB is likely to stay away from imitation of large-scale activities and concentrate on security of the current government.
Minsk-Tallin