At the Crossroads

Yet another congress of United Democratic Forces of Belarus, necessity of which had been argued hard by opposition, has finally taken place. The seventh congress, just as the sixth one, have been held in Palace of Culture of Minsk automobile plant. The idea of holding the congress had come shortly after the first round of presidential elections which had been taking place on March 19, 2006 but came into life only in May 2007. There were several reasons for that.
The old opposition in the person of its permanent party leaders has decided to stage the second series of “Single candidate” soap opera, just as it happened after 2001 presidential elections. Alexander Milinkevich appeared to be the front man as he had managed to become a remarkable figure among democrats and draw a considerable amount of opposition’s organization and financial resources. Such state of affairs didn’t satisfy other parties’ leaders as it made them dependent on the single candidate and cut their chances of staying in front rows of queuing for power which they had occupied and defended eagerly for many years. Since Milinkevich was elected as single opposition candidate at the UDF congress, the process of removing him was to be done in the same way.

There was no big need of holding the congress urgently for Alexander Milinkevich especially if according to his makeshift allies’ rules, as their intentions were quite obvious. Milinkevich’s goal was to preserve his status as long as possible while attempting to complete his own political organization “For Freedom!” building in order to decrease his dependence on the old opposition.

There was at least one more reason, and it demanded holding the congress just after March 2006 events. Since there were no real elections (international community didn’t recognize the elections results as they had violated electoral legislation), the United Democratic Forces congress was to define officially its attitude toward 2006 elections: to recognize or not to recognize. In the latter case, the opposition had to demand authorities of holding a second round of presidential elections in terms determined by Constitution. That’s what the political struggle is about. And that’s what one of the presidential candidates – Alexander Kozulin – spoke for. However, the opposition party leaders didn’t dare to make that, as they could foresee the possible consequences quite well. Savage punishment Kozulin got was quite a vivid warning.

A year ago in an article "Year 2006: what should we do?,” the author made an attempt to give prove of necessity of holding the congress urgently before second round of presidential elections in order to work out the democratic forces’ further tactics. There was also expressed an anxiety about handing the process of forum’s preparation and holding over to old opposition, which ultimately happened later. The consequences of such development of events were obvious: old opposition screwed it all up.

Problems with holding the congress had already broken out from the preparation stage. Ivashkevich proposed to combine local Soviets elections with nomination of delegates to the UDF congress. The prerogative was given to the latter. The party opposition decided to follow the old wisdom: a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. A campaign for getting power in the country turned into a campaign for getting power in the opposition. Opposition parties bent every effort to collecting voters’ signatures in order to get as many delegate mandates in future congress as possible. As a result, only 213 democrats (2.2% of the total number) were registered as candidates in local elections. That campaign was filled with dirt and political grubbiness in opposition environment itself. Even the reputation of leader of one of the leading political parties was singed. There had been many meetings of UDF’s council held with procedure of deputies selection on agenda, but no transparent, fair, and clear mechanism of deputies selection was worked out.

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A campaign for getting power in the country turned into a campaign for getting power in the opposition.

This was the reason for considerable part of delegates from Mogilev oblast to boycott the congress. The rebel deputies accused many opposition parties’ leaders of moral depravity. Here’s what “Belarusskiya naviny” (“Belarusian news”) wrote on May 26, 2007: “We tried to obtain justice from the government, -- leader of Mahilev social democrats Yuri Novikov stated, -- but we’ve never seen such arbitrariness during congress organization. Organizers of congress have no moral.” Quite a paradox – Lukashenka’s methods were adopted by his political opponents.

However, even this scandal did not cool the old opposition representatives’ ardor. Some of them went on with their dubious tactics at the congress which put the mandatory commission of democratic forum to unheard-of shifts – to re-register the delegates. That happened after voting on the main document of the congress – United Democratic Forces’ actions strategy. Re-registration changed the voting results drastically. At first 463 delegates had voted for strategy proposed by old opposition with 190 against, but after the re-registration the number of delegates being in favor dropped by 21% and amounted to 365. 185 delegates voted against the strategy (their number dropped by 2%), and 20 delegates abstained. The voting results signify that gerrymandering delegates’ votes was most likely done by largest opposition parties leadership as which was interested in their strategy being adopted. These people put forth great efforts to block alternative strategy proposed by Nickolai Statkevich as it included active, not temporizing way of race for power. The congress also adopted by majority of votes for the Small Constitution and economic platform which had been developed by leaders of the old opposition.

The documents adopted by congress provoke many questions concerning both their content and their timeliness and expediency. A detailed analysis of these documents’ projects was carried out in Karbalevich’s article “So where is the alternative?” published by “Nashe Mnenie” (“Our opinion”) website. We can make an assumption that there were several reasons for the old opposition to push all that documents through during voting. One the one hand opposition parties’ leadership had to demonstrate their combat against the regime – even by writing documents of doubtful value. This kind of activities can be interpreted as message to both foreign sponsors and active combatants against the regime among youth. The latter were not able to estimate the real value of such documents because they lack experience. On the other hand, documents adopted at the congress might be a signal for the regime: we know how to escape social and economic crisis so let us prove it in real life. It means that the old opposition’s leadership are simply asks regime’s permission to gain some power. It reminds popular slogan of Perestroika era: “Party! Let us rule!” It’s not likely for the main man in power to receive gratefully such assistance from the side of his opponents as it does not correspond with his own model of state structure. Hence the economic platform doesn’t have any practical value now. When opposition comes to power (if it happens some day), this document will already lose its timeliness as political and economic situation will change (most likely for the worse). Russia’s leadership will lose no chance of punishing their half-brothers for such familiarities as there will is nothing worse for them than color revolution in Belarus.

So called Small Constitution is also useless for everyone except for old opposition. After becoming aware of their intellectual, organizational, and charismatic abilities, opposition leadership are trying to get some warranties for Lukashenka losing his power scenario. For that reason the Small Constitution provisions limitations of future president’s power so to escape “Batka. Part II” alternative, after they may lose their place in power sinecure. This document is very untimely as it reminds us of selling the bear's skin before somebody catches it. Besides, this document does not have any legal force. There’s a legitimate Constitution of 1994 in the country. And we should recognize its force after the regime’s change while cancelling all amendment which had been made illegally.

So what do we have now, after the seventh congress of United Democratic Forces?

1. The old opposition has actually recognized presidential elections’ results which in fact do not exist. That is why we may talk about the regime having been legitimized by its political opponents.
2. Old opposition has admitted its defeat and renounces struggle for power in the streets – but not the power itself. All their hopes of getting power old opposition binds with spontaneous protests resulting economic crisis, or palace revolution.
3. Old opposition is also considering another alternative of coming into power (this is not the same as power take-over) by negotiating with current regime. Here’s another objection: why should authorities negotiate with admittedly weak and beaten many times opponent?
4. Old opposition hopes that it may become a mediator in talks between West and the regime in conditions of external pressure increasing all the time. Simple souls, really. They can reach consensus without any mediators. Recent tea-drinking of one cute and masterful lady and Lukashenka’s transoceanic foe’s envoy serves as a good example. They managed to arrange everything quickly and with no mediators. As a result Nickolai Statkevich and Pavel Severinets were unbound, and Molodoi Front activists and Schukin were fined, not confined.
5. There was a split during the congress among the regime’s opponents into two wings: “Bolsheviks” (old opposition, 365 delegates) and “Mensheviks” (Alexander Milinkevich, Nickoli Statkevich, Pavel Severinets, and their supporters, 185 delegates). “Mensheviks” seem to be more preferable as they are supported by the main moving force of upcoming revolution – youth. However, this split requires actual taking shape.
6. Regime in the person of Alexander Lukashenka and his inner club should have had their own interest in the results of the UDF congress. They were interested in old opposition majority’s victory as it would have helped to preserve the status quo in the future. In accordance with the circumstances the authorities had provided building for holding the congress to their political opponents. The authorities had seen beforehand that the issue of presidential elections’ results (and the issue of power) was not to be disputed. Though, if be guided by logic, this issue should have been the hotspot of the agenda: all following decisions should have arose from delegates’ attitude toward this issue. This is what the political power is about and that’s what Alexander Kozulin insisted on many times. However, that didn’t happen. Besides, it was much easier for the authorities to control the congress if permitting to hold it in Belarus.

The main regime’s task after the split in opposition is to neutralize the potential activity of “Mensheviks”. So we can’t exclude the possibility of regime to continue putting pressure on youth leaders and “wild” democratic leaders like Nickolai Statkevich and Pavel Severinets. The authorities are to do everything for making “Mensheviks” play according to “Bolsheviks’” rules. Appeals for preserving united opposition under rule of “Bolsheviks” will be in the regime’s favor. Russian Bolsheviks’ tactics of early 1900s’ is quite relevant now: they declared “final and irrevocable split” before uniting with their allies.

“Mensheviks”, if they are really oriented on gaining power, have to change their tactics drastically. Lenin’s experience can be quite useful. They should start with creating a real mechanism of gaining power by peaceful means. They may also use Lukashenka’s experience to some extend. First of all, they need to hold a new congress without any “Bolsheviks”. Such development of events can introduce lots of new into Belarusian political life including the regime’s support provided to old opposition.

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The old opposition has actually recognized presidential elections’ results which in fact do not exist. That is why we may talk about the regime having been legitimized by its political opponents.

History tells us that revolution can be successful only if it is well prepared. That is why “Mensheviks” have to hurry as situation both in the country and abroad favors democratic revolution. The last Lukashenka’s decisions (and he comprehends the situation like no other) give proof to this conclusion. During last 6 months he declared creating three new brigades of special police forces (now opposition has to lead out 150-200 thousand of their supporters), transferring special police officers to contract basis (mercenaries are more indifferent to the morality), dismantling satellite TV receivers (broadcasting from Poland to Belarus is about to begin), he didn’t decrease pressure put upon youth leaders and so on.

So, congress has ended leaving lots of question. Belarusian opposition is at the crossroads. What will be next? “Bolsheviks” are most likely to continue on the same lines. They have started preparations for the 2008 parliamentary elections. They understand that there will be no elections but they have to earn their living. Soon there will be new business plans, economic strategies, political strategies, and so on. So their sponsors need to prepare money right now. And what will happen to “Mensheviks”?

We’ll see.