Report on the "Renaissance Generation" Project Workshop in Dresden

The participants of the "Renaissance generation" education project have attended a workshop hold in Dresden with the support of the Third Way community and its German partners. The sessions topic was searching for new ways of Belarus' transformation, both economic and political.

Our choice of Dresden to be a host city for our seminar was not made by chance. Eastern Germany had lived through all that difficulties Belarus will most likely have to cope with in future. And Dresden itself sets a pattern of a rapidly developing city with its economy and infrastructure having been successfully transformed.

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The VEM Sachsenwerk enterprise had been nationalized during GDR times and came across with a problem of traditional market outlets' disappearance after Warsaw Treaty Organization collapsed. Nevertheless it was privatized after several years of stagnation and has later become a successful competitor of such colossus as Siemens.

The program of the workshop was very replete. On the first day we visited VEM Sachsenwerk enterprise which produces large electric motors. The enterprise had been nationalized during GDR times and came across with a problem of traditional market outlets' disappearance after Warsaw Treaty Organization collapsed. Nevertheless it was privatized after several years of stagnation and has later become a successful competitor of such colossus as Siemens. Then we discussed the Belarusian topic with a representative of German Liberal Democratic Party's bloc in the Parliament of Saxony Ronald Werner. After that the participants attended a tour of Parliament of Saxony. We were told, in addition, about some shortcomings a democracy has: for example, several seats in the Parliament of Saxony are occupied by the members of German National Party who often afford to say pronounce politically incorrect declarations. Nevertheless, only one deputy was deprived of his mandate, and it happened after he had brought fire arms into the Parliament.

On the second and third days the participants attended a lecture on comparison of ways of political and economic transformation in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, which was kindly conducted by Dresden Technical University professor Jakob Lemp. He pointed out objective reasons which prevent Belarus form transforming into a liberal democracy (weak or missing national identity, dependent mentality many Belarusians possess, lack of living experience in a successful democratic state, huge corruption, absence of strong middle-class etc). In his judgement, changes in Belarus can happen only in case of current situation's destabilization, not Belarus' gradual transformation under current regime. Then a German division of Amnesty International presented a Lectures of Belarusian Language movie.

On the fourth day the participants attended a lecture conducted by Belarusian economist Kirill Haiduk, a representative of Belarusian Institute of Privatization and Management. He introduced us to his impartial evaluation of current situation in Belarusian economy. It was a big surprise for many that gas prices hike and EU denial of Belarus trade preferences appeared to be of practically no challenge for Belarusian economy (on the contrary, oil conflict with Russia is a very serious threat to Lukashenka's regime). The biggest danger for Belarusian "economic wonder" is devaluation of Belarusian rouble with respect to US dollar. As a whole, our country lags behind nearly all new EU members except for Bulgaria and Romania. Belarusian economic growth, however, can be compared to that of Latvia or Estonia (European GDP growth leaders). Our only (and yet very important) advantage is very small external debt. In Mr. Haiduk's opinion, economic situation in Belarus is likely to worsen in short- and middle-term prospective, however some opposition leaders' hopes for soon economic collapse are not likely to be fulfilled.

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Belarus only (and yet very important) advantage is very small external debt.

The workshop appeared to be very interesting. The Belarus' transformation will be very protracted and uneasy (as well as our expectations for it to finally start). Even former GDR still remains a depressive region though there was multibillion investments influx from Western Germany. Nevertheless, all authoritarian countries with almost no free market had faced a collapse, which is why Belarusians will also have to overcome the painful changes transformation will bring. What we all hope for is that Renaissance Generation project on young experts training will contribute its mite into the process oftransformation strategies development.