Belarus and Russia: Friends Forever...?

Until January 1, 2007 Belarus enjoyed considerably lower prices for energy from Russia. Cheap energy was in fact a tool of the Kremlin’s economic, and consequently political, support for Lukashenka’s regime. But at the end of March 2006, right after the presidential elections that confirmed Lukashenka in office for another five years, Moscow announced change in its policy. Lukashenka’s harsh reaction created a feeling that policy change is possible in Minsk.

The paper Belarus and Russia: Friends Forever...? covering the current situation and predicting possible development argues that there is no foundation for serious change in Minsk toward Moscow. Despite the rhetoric attempt to hold dialogue with the West, which seems to indicate that there is no firm belief in Minsk, the position of the Belarusian government continues to deteriorate the situation further by blackmailing Moscow in hopes of achieving more favorable conditions (e.g. to undo the change in the subsidization policy). Now, it is up to the opposition and civil society to make Belarusian society aware of these deficiencies and to formulate alternative policies in order to have a word in the development of the next era – at least up until the next Russian presidential elections (early 2008) and the Belarusian parliamentary elections (October 2008) – which may determine the future of Belarus for a longer time.

For other analyses and briefs on Belarus visit Pontis foundation website.