Mikhail Marinich: Economic Reforms Might Form New Strategy Basis

Belarusian international political rhetoric undergoes changes. Countries of the European Union have been very often called for cooperation and joint work and as a reply to these appeals definite economic prepositions are being made to the Belarusian authorities .Can the new “European” direction of the official Minsk become successful? This subject has been considered by the former minister for external economic relations, former ambassador of Belarus in the Latvian Republic, Estonia and Finland Mikhail Marinich in his interview with the “Belarusi i Rinak” newspaper.

-Mr. Marinich, how do you estimate the new European policy and Lukashenka in this context? Is a sharp improvement of the relations with the West possible in the present situation?

-I don’t think that there is any foreign political strategy of the Belarusian authorities with regard of Europe and the European Union, in particular. There hasn’t been any strategy for the last years; there is no strategy at this moment either.

Declarations of improving relations with the West are announced from time to time by the Belarusian authorities. It happens in the context of counteractions against Russia, just when it becomes beneficial for Lukashenka to blackmail Russia another time. Today this issue sounds sharper than ever before because it is for the first time that Russia didn’t participate in the round of populist rows with Lukashenka but employed the only possible and correct economic approach to bilateral agreements. And, finally, it realized the unreliability of “pro-Russian» orientation of the Belarusian authorities.

As far as the Belarusian- European relations are concerned, I don’t think that they are the reality of the near future and the reality of the present regime. Nothing essential is going to happen until Lukashenka doesn’t meet the European Union’s requirements of democratization of the political system. These requirements are well-known to everybody: release of the political prisoners, investigation of disappearance cases, freedom of press, independent elections in compliance with the new electoral legislation.

I am impressed how Europe and the USA keep to their principles. Policymakers of these countries do not respond spontaneously to emotional declarations of Lukashenka. The West had enough time for getting acquainted with his politics of advances or blackmail, depending on the situation. Rich experience of the complicated relationship helps the West in making certain conclusions.

-Meanwhile, the Baltic countries are likely to occupy a definite position inside the EU. Lithuania offers oil deliveries to Belarus through its territory obviously intending to perform ”the intermediary” function, and Latvia after the summer diplomatic scandal seldom dares to criticize the official Minsk. May the Baltic countries give in to the “materialistic” course of the Belarusian regime? What do you think?

-The European Union several times spoke in favor of normalization of the Belarusian- European relations. Unlike Belarus, Europe has always suggested definite steps for the parties to take for improving their relations. The so-called institution of intermediation has been employed for achieving that.

It is logical, that one of the countries neighboring Belarus acts as a negotiator .In different periods this role was performed by Poland and Latvia. Today the initiative belongs to Lithuania. From my viewpoint, the European Union, itself, needs a powerful inner resource, a country or a group of policymakers interested in promoting the Belarusian issue. I regularly touched upon this topic during my meetings with European policymakers.

Here I totally share the opinion of ambassador Hans –George Vick who has spent much effort for defining the EU attitude towards Belarus. The neighboring countries have to play an important role in developing such strategy. After its development and adoption new concessions to Minsk on competitive issues will become impossible for any member-state of the European Union.

Hopefully, the period of groundless declarations of separate countries on the possible dialogue with Belarusian authorities without their real steps on democratization of Belarus will remain nothing else but the echo of the energy conflict and is going to finish soon.

-The Belarusian authorities announce a good dynamics of trade relations with the EU countries. Being a former minister for foreign economic relations how will you estimate their real perspectives and trends at the present stage?

-Actually, the trend in the economic relations between Belarus and the EU countries may be formally considered as positive. It became possible due to the economic role played by Belarus in the relations between Russia and the European Union. Actually, it was a resale of the Russian energy resources with significant margin, which remained in Belarus.

If the new terms of gas and oil deliveries from Russia are taken into consideration, I doubt, that the positive trend of trade relations between Belarus and the European Union will remain because there are practically no export goods, which could be demanded in the West.

It is the issue of opening the EU market to Belarusian goods and of their stable positioning in the EU market that could become the basis for the European policy of the Republic of Belarus. But to make the domestic output competitive and to realize the country’s economic potential radical modernization of industry, new system of management, training of new managers, property rights guarantees are required. These ideas seem revolutionary to the present Belarusian authorities and I doubt that they are able to implement them. The issues of the Belarusian European relations development and the Belarusian economy, itself, are of the same level and have no perspective if the present power system remains.