Political Economy: Eurobelarus.

Andrej Kolesnikov

If Aliaksandr Lukashenka remains consistent then the conditional watershed between Russia and Belarus will be EU’s and NATO’s border. For not so much smart as shifty leader, it is vitally important not just to reach the end of his term but to ensure his own security after resignation. Lukashenka, a man with pragmatic peasant mentality, is deliberating on whom it is more favorable to have business with, both today and tomorrow: with Russia or EU, with East or West. Meanwhile West has been chosen. It remains only to convince yesterday’s rivals in his good intentions.

Why not? Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tadzhikistan—all these countries have managed to do that. Next Turkmenbashi is also likely to wear democratic mask while playing his dictatorial games in order to meet the approval of centers of forces located West from Moscow.

Kremlin is not the only a pebble on the beach. Moscow has missed all opportunities to overthrow Lukashenka, to strike a deal with him, or to nurture a successor. Even during recent oil and gas conflict this January,  Russia failed to overpower Lukashenka. Well, that means just one thing--the place is vacant, and now it is the West’s turn. Belarusian people deserve normal life and are ready for reforms.

Here is Aliaksandr Milinkevich, one of the opposition leaders, proposing Lukashenka a bargain: you release political prisoners and we help you to establish contacts with European political elite. Pragmatic Belarusian industrialists are ready to offer their gas-transport facilities to Ukraine. Ukraine needs Belarus, Belarus needs Ukraine. No place for Russia anymore.

The situation has qualitatively changed. Belarus is balancing on the scales of History. It can swing to either side. Everybody understands that, maybe except for European bureaucrats and Russian political and economic elite.

There are no constant allies. There are only partners, situational, temporary, or permanent. Those, who will contract an alliance with Lukashenka, understand that. Former collective farm director understands that too. Lukashenka feels that he’s got an opportunity to obtain his posthumous life—after his term in Office is over.

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Lukashenka feels that he’s got an opportunity to obtain his posthumous life—after his term in Office is over.

Soviet Union’s collapse is not over yet. We are witnesses of its end. Russian elite considered Belarus to be a part of USSR and, according to principle of succession of state, a Russian colony. Lukashenka was ready to accept it under certain conditions. That is the secret of his political longevity and charisma. That was the reason of support he enjoyed of both Belarusian and Russian peoples. As soon as Russian oil and gas policy became a “market” one, Soviet Union collapsed. People in Kremlin thought that only Lukashenka would go, and Belarus would remain a member state, an extension of Smolensk oblast. But Belarus has gone away too, together with Lukashenka, political prisoners and opposition. Everybody needs independent Belarus now. March 25, the unofficial date of Belarusian independence, will be passionately celebrated by both authorities and opposition.

Their views on what Belarus should be differ very much. But they need it to be independent.

Andrej Kolesnikov is a political correspondent for Russian Informational Agency Novosti.