Dialogue is Lukashenko's Counterfuge

by Aliaksandr Milinkevich, ex-candidate for president of the United Democratic Forces at Belarusian presidential elections in 2006

As long as Lukashenko does not release political prisoners and does not return to freedom of speech, concessions of the West will lead only to maintaining a brutal regime in the centre of Europe.
Several European politicians dream about a new approach to Belarus – they say – "wiser", "more realistic". They speak about the necessity to change the European policy towards Minsk, working on a new plan according to which the West would stop trying to isolate the Belarusian dictator and would propose him a arrangement. In reality this would only be about allowing Lukashenko to stay in power, but as an ally of the West, rather than of the Kremlin. This would create on the eastern border of Europe a kind of Azerbaijan.

Europe believes that they can carry out such a sly game because the might of Lukashenko has apparently significantly weakened. European politicians think that forced into a corner he now has a choice – deepening of the economic crisis and following its result – agreement to the status of marionette of the Kremlin or even throwing away the independence of Belarus – or political dialogue with Europe, taking forced steps in the democratisation of the country and in result – the support of Europe in neutralising the pressure of Russia.

Belarusians should not have any illusions – Europe is interested in building relations with the Minsk authorities that would guarantee its own interests – fighting illegal immigration, grugs, and above all the functioning of the Belarusian transit corridor. The problem of Belarus in minds of Europeans has become associated with their energy security, their comfort and their welfare. Some European politicians would accept such state of affairs even under the Lukashenko dictatorship – if it were under their control.

From his side, Lukashenko is trying to push the West into moving away from opposition to his dictatorship. He is threatening the perspective of the Russian border moving to Brest, which would mean the rebuilding of Russian military infrastructure as well as changes in Russia, which would not necessarily be welcomed by the West. Lukashenko is trying to create a belief that his "regime is the lesser evil than moving the border of Russia to Brest". Following this logic of Lukashenko, the West should recognise him as a full partner, develop political contacts, economic cooperation without insisting on such conditions as releasing political prisoners, securing political freedoms or remembering about human rights. This was clearly stated in the recent interview for the German newspaper "Die Welt".

In reality all European voices about the perspective of cooperation with Belarus are only needed by Lukashenko to maintain his personal power. He is trying to consolidate the governing elite, which, based on their own economic profits, has no intention to let into Belarus either the West or Russia. He is gaining a few extra percentage of support from his electorate by playing the role of defender against the Russian oligarchs and their associates in the Kremlin. He is thinking that by flirting with Europe, he will persuade Russia to return to the old model of cooperation, in which Moscow will pay a solid price for Lukashenko to be its strategic ally.

At the same time, while the public opinion was paying attention to the Belarusian-Russian oil-gas epic, the political regime in our country became even more brutal. Activists of the democratic movement, opposition organisations, journalists, independent activists of trade unions are still repressed.

The natural question arises: isn't it logic that the Belarusian society, its pro-democratically thinking part, and especially those who were beated or put in prison, or those who lot their loved ones, would take the "most realistic" approach to the Lukashenko dictatorship as a betrayal? The answer is clear.

In such situation, Europe, and above all the neighbour of Belarus, Poland, is making a mistake assuming that the tension in relations between the Lukashenko regime and Russia would become an impulse for the democratisation of Belarus. The EU should create a strategy of supporting the democratic change in Belarus, a strategy of cooperating with the pro-democratic part of the society - who is the only worthy partner for Europe. Regarding the declared intention of today of the Lukashenko regime to carry out dialogue with the EU, this should only be taken seriously following the fulfilment of many conditions. Above all he must release political prisoners, guarantee the freedom of speech, create conditions for freedom of assembly and development of political parties. He must carry out a real investigation in the cases of political disappearances and punish the guilty ones. He must stop repression against activists of opposition organisations.

Without fulfillment of these conditions any concessions of the West would only lead to the maintaining in the centre of Europe a brutal regime.

It is clear that in order to enter into concrete dialogue with the West, Lukashenko should decide to carry out changes in Belarus that would not only contradict his own interest,s but also the interests of his close attachment. That is why as long as Lukashenko is in power, the normalisation of relations between Minsk and Europe can be excluded.