To Be or Not to Be...

In the last few months there were lots of disputes among Lukashenka’s opponents on whether we need independent radio and television or not. To be exact, the issue is slightly different: will one new independent radio station or TV channel be enough to change people’s mentality and hence the situation in the country?

When somebody is going to do something (or not to do), he answers several questions he questioned himself:
1. What?
2. Who?
3. When?
4. Why? What will be the result?

No serious business starts without these questions. Let’s try to examine if Belarus needs independent radio as basic instrument of developing country into a democratic state.

1. What? (the problem)

I’ve heard many times from respectable people that the major problem of Belarus is absence of information, or informational vacuum, one might say. And that this vacuum is filled by governmental mass media while non-governmental media are being forced out.

Well, any point of view is correct if it can give answer to all questions. And there are many of them. If there’s a total informational vacuum in Belarus, then why in May 2005 it took just three days for rumors about new radiation emission on Chernobyl energy plant to spread everywhere across Belarus in spite of government doing everything to stop this flurry of speculations? Why despite all governmental mass media’s efforts, these rumors were about to cause civil commotions? Why all coercive units not only failed to stop these rumors but were unable to deal with peddlers? Why despite Vitebsk explosions being concealed by authorities (just one tiny newspaper article), there were most incredible rumors/conjectures/suppositions constantly spreading around the city? If rumors can spread in Belarusian informational space so rapidly, then where is the mentioned vacuum? And if information is spreading and it is spreading instantly (two cases mentioned above are far from being unique), then there is no informational vacuum. So what is actually the problem?

In our opinion, the collapse of independent mass media in Belarus is not a cause but effect of one phenomenon my organization has been observing for several years in Belarus. And combating against independent mass media’s vanishing is similar to speeding-down a vehicle because of bad tires instead of changing it; it is similar to taking febrifugal instead of establishing the reason which has caused disease.

During 11 years of Lukashenka’s governing the country, the most dreadful thing happened: people don’t need independent information anymore. Society doesn’t look for independent information; it is quite satisfied with one single source of information. That’s the malady Belarusian society must cure.

Let us give some examples to prove our point of view:

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Will one new independent radio station or TV channel be enough to change people’s mentality and the situation in the country?

1. Radio Svaboda (Radio Liberty) doesn’t only broadcast to Belarus but has its own website. The amount of website’s visitors is bigger than radio’s audience. There are several reasons to these weird fact: Svaboda.org website’s visitors don’t depend on translating time (they can visit website at any time, they don’t have to tune in) and there are more computers than radios sets in Belarusian houses. Meanwhile, the amount of this website’s active visitors is ca. 2000 people a day. It is just 0.03% of 7 000 000 voters in Belarus. It means that the Radio Svaboda website’s influence is even less than half of percent or, to tell the truth, its political and social influence is negligibly small and tends to zero. We can say that statistically there is no Radio Svaboda. Somebody has heard of it but nobody listens in it. There is free access to internet in Belarus. Then why people do not use it to get independent information from Radio Svaboda website? Lukashenka’s regime doesn’t hamper people to visit any websites. People don’t get fired, they are not being thrown into prisons, tortured or killed through it. But the majority of voters doesn’t visit this website. Why? The reason is they don’t need information from Radio Svaboda website.

One senior told us that when he got a copy of Solzhenitsyn’s “The Gulag archipelago” (a book prohibited in USSR), printed on bad paper without beginning and ending, he photocopied it and distributed copies. He said that people were ready to take the risk of loosing everything for just reading this book. The old man lived in the Soviet Union, and he had all chances to feel on his own back if the truth had been written about labor camps in this book. He knew it, and he still took the risk. Other people risked too while passing fragments of this book to others. That was in such a way because it was interesting for them, because it was necessary, necessary for themselves. So people needed independent information, they were looking for it and were ready to pay high price for this information.

2. We had Radio Racja. Radio Racja, which was the second independent Radio, failed to become popular. It died peacefully and its extinction was noticed only by journalists who worked there. Radio Racja’s close wasn’t discussed anywhere; people didn’t call each other in panic. What’s the reason of such indifference? Nobody listened to Radio Racja and that was the problem. Thus, we can create 100 independent radio stations and it won’t advance free and democratic Belarus a bit because they will all have very small audience. It is very easy to learn what source of information is popular within the country and which one is the most effective. If people discuss it at home, work or in their backyard, then this source of information enjoys people’s trust and respect, it is interesting and it is relied on. Do not misunderstand me: Radio Svaboda news is NOT discussed by ANYONE. Our organization members have examined all Vitebsk markets, 17 enterprises, and 112 tenement-houses. NOWHERE Radio Svaboda news was discussed. And it means that a) nobody listens to this radio; b) probably some people listen to it, but the information obtained is so uninteresting that they don’t consider necessary to discuss it. Why do we need a new radio station if it won’t be interesting for the majority of Belarusians? It is quite an expensive project. So European Union will blow another big sum of money, and then they will grieve: Why did we fail again? EU resembles a doctor who had made out a wrong diagnosis, bought huge amount of expensive yet useless medicine and after that blames patient for his death—the doctor is right, the patient is wrong! Gentlemen! You forgot one important thing: radio is quite an effective thing if there’s lack of independent information and people need it. And what if there’s no need? How can we compel people to abstract for everyday problems and tune up their radio-set?

One might say that best journalists will work for that radio and that will compel people to listen to it. Well, maybe it’s true. But how can we make people listen to it for the first time? Should we rope them to central heating radiator and turn radio-set on?

3. Nothing prevents us now from using internet as a source of independent and reliable information about the situation in Belarus. The number of internet cafes grows every day. Every person can go there and surf internet for inconsiderable sum of money. It is much cheaper than alcohol and cigarettes this hypothetic young man buys every day. But! Most of young people visit porno or entertaining websites but won’t look for independent information. The amount of internet users and the amount of informational websites’ visitors grow disproportionately and there’s no coherence between this two numbers.

4. We can still buy independent newspapers. Two or three years ago one could easily buy them in a stall or make a subscription for them. “Narodnaya Volya” can still be subscribed for though it was prohibited to sell it in stalls. People are not thrown into prisons or get fired because of reading independent newspapers. It is quite safe to read them. But independent newspapers’ circulation continues to fall. So far (taking certain repressions into consideration) the circulation of ALL independent newspapers taken together is smaller than that of “Sovietskaya Byelorussia”, leading governmental newspaper. Numerous governmental radio stations and TWO state TV-channels should be also mentioned. On the other hand people tend to trust governmental mass media. That’s a fact. BTR  (Belarusian state TV-channel) tells outrageous lies about democrats but it’s not a problem. The problem is that people trust it. If they didn’t, BTR wouldn’t do that.

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Radio is quite an effective thing if there’s lack of independent information and people need it.

Thus independent radio stations don’t solve the problem they were created to solve. That is so because the problem was defined wrongly from the very beginning--not the absence of independent information in Belarus, but the absence of need for independent information. Radio won’t solve that problem.

2. Who (the target group)

When working on any problem, it is crucially important to define the target group that you are working for. It is also crucial not to make a mistake.

If we are talking about new independent radio station to broadcast on Belarus, then its target group is:

Housewives.

Due to economic circumstances people in Belarus spend a lot of time on work and perquisite. Most of Belarusians have irregular working hours. They come back to their homes being exhausted and they just want to have dinner and go to bed. Well, at best they would watch TV in order to relax. So an average person wants to watch something unobtrusive, romantic, as a last resort it can be a crime chronicle. A man being tired doesn’t care much about news, especially if it is bad news. Then what can make him turn on and listen to this news—not even watch? Who has got so much free time to tune in and listen to the radio every day? There is an answer—housewives. But this target group is very small in Belarus (0.5% of all voters) and it is passive. It didn’t take part in any protest actions. Besides, there are not many families where wife can afford not to work. These are officials’ or reach businessmen’s families; they have access to internet and satellite TV. In addition, they are not motivated to change anything. What would housewife like to listen to? Fashion news? Does she have any motivation to search for some AM station to listen to a radio program no one knows about and which comes in a very bad sound quality? And finally: what reason can make housewife listen to the radio if she has TV-set with soap operas in her kitchen being on in the evening right after her husband’s work is over—the same time new independent radio station is intended to broadcast?

One can make an assumption that this radio will be listened to by people who are against Lukashenka. That’s the whole point! These people are ALREADY against. They don’t need to be agitated. And then—why don’t they listen to Radio Svaboda NOW?

Why Radio’s Svaboda audience is so small, if it is on demand for Belarusian society?

Car drivers.

Drivers will listen to this radio only if it is FM-station. For example, in Western Belarus drivers sometimes listen to Polish RMF FM. If this radio would be AM, then they wouldn’t listen. And we should remember that being a driver is a very tough job. They have to work more to make their living. Most of drivers drive their vehicles more than 10 hours a day (sometimes it is several days in a row!).

Hence, people want to sleep and they do everything to avoid it. That is why this target group doesn’t want serious news which requires additional efforts. They want loud music, and which is why any serious radio conversation is signal for them to switch the channel. That’s why drivers don’t like RMF FM—there is too much talk. Drivers choose it just because they want to listen to music which is an alternative to Belarusian (Lukashenka ordered Belarusian radio stations’ playlists to consist of minimum 75% of Belarusian music). But if there’s a talk—they switch the channel.

3. When?

Will the people be so highly motivated to draw their mind from everyday duties and listen to the news on radio? No. There are several Belarusian and Russian TV-channels, many households have cable TV with sports and entertainment. Most people don’t see any difference between TV channels and trust everything shown to them. And those people who don’t trust Belarusian TV, trust Russian channels—they’ve got freedom and democracy there, don’t they? In the Soviet era people believed that it was impossible to get impartial information from state mass media. Now they trust everything, and is it possible to make them change their mind with the help of hissing radio-set? It is impossible.

During his rule, Stalin ordered to bring radio to every house. That was a revolution in people’s mind. People started to get information simultaneously. Every person. But now we think that radio will help again, that we can combat XXI century technologies with that of the middle of XX century. Nobody has ever won that way.

4. What is the result?

Let’s make a conclusion. The new independent radio in Belarus:

1. Doesn’t solve the problem of independent information being not needed.
2. Its target group is small, and it doesn’t influence public opinion much.
3. Too big expenses for every member of target group.
4. Target group is not motivated to search for this radio station. And there’s no visible way to motivate them.
5. Why do Belarusian voters have to search for this radio channel if they have TV and internet, quite truthful sources of information to their mind?

There are 7 million voters in Belarus. So we’ll spend huge money and large human resources just to make radio for audience which doesn’t have any political influence, numbers at 0.5% of population and is not motivated to listen to this radio.