2007. Mobilization

2006 was undoubtedly a year of great changes. Perhaps those are not the changes whose effects are seen right away. Those are the changes that cultivate future victories. Primarily, I would like to emphase two events:
- the tent camp
- the rise of a new generation of civic and youth activists

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They found out themselves that a step towards the future can be done individually, not waiting for any special circumstances.

A tent camp was a very sincere sight, and not from the perspective of how many people were there, or how it was covered by media, but more because of the atmosphere that dominated the souls of citizens who came to the Square. They found out themselves that a step towards the future can be done individually, not waiting for any special circumstances.

The fist event defined the emergence of the second. The “Platz Generation” believed in its strength. Granted that far from everybody who went there are now active. Yet even few activists of “new generation” who are goal oriented and responsible do more then tens and hundreds of apathetic volunteers, who at this point are not very interested in steady participation.

Mobilized young people, who by their character are creative and sensitive to what happens in the country, introduced new forms and methods of struggle.

First of all, it is emergence of socio-political flash mob, as a relatively new form of street protest in Belarus that was noticed in the neighboring countries of Russia and Ukraine. The next thing is a well-organized system of precaution for street events that allow avoiding detention. As a result, in more then a few cases, when such system was applied, there was not a single serious problem (only three people detained for one hour). It became an adequate response to the challenge of many arrests, conducted by police and unknown men in civil uniform, during the course of spring actions.

Among the new forms of civic actions are non-political projects that help to learn more about Belarusian culture and also the ones about developing civil consciousness in unfavorable environment. Specific examples of that would be a portal about children for parents in Belarusian language www.dzietki.org , historical game “Pošuk” (The Quest) at www.poszuk.info , charitable society Dapamoha (Assistance) at www.dapamoga.by . There are many of such examples.

However, in my view, the most important is the understanding that many people started to have about changes not falling suddenly on our heads like last year's snow. They realized that  the achievement of such changes require an everyday, often hard and responsible work. One has to apply unique methods, have an ability to compromise, not deviate from set goals until they are finished. It is the understanding that present situation is not hopeless, but by being a hard one it requires a large effort, so that Belarus sees the victory of healthy forces that wish to see their nation flourishing.

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it is emergence of socio-political flash mob, as a relatively new form of street protest in Belarus

This year of 2007, possibly, will be even more difficult for civic forces, but maybe it will be decisive for the victory. This is furthered up by tension between Belarus and Russia, which is most vivid in negotiations over supply and transportation of hydrocarbon, primarily oil and natural gas. Many readers know that “Belarusian economic miracle” is built on conditions when expenses and losses could be compensated by no-tariff import of oil products to Belarus for chemical processing and their export as ready products to EU; also by low prices on Russian natural gas, which are far beloy the market prices. It is known that Russia has levied tariffs on delivery of oil products to Belarus by canceling its privileges, and Russian giant corporation Gazprom by way of signing an agreement with Belarus for 2007-2011 will be able to establish a price level at $100 per 1,000 cubic meters for delivering gas, with an annual increase of price tunil it reaches the one in Europe. Economic forecasts of many experts conclude that the present Belarusian economic model will be unviable in such conditions. What does it mean?

It means that if government considers this situation as critical, it will fluctuate between three main courses:

1. After dragging for a year or two, and obtaining a partial lowering of prices on gas from Gazprom, Belarus starts economic reforms. This will require a high quality strategy of reforms, liberalization of economy, partial privatization of national enterprises, attraction of foreign investments, and guaranty of stability of these investments. Additional factor will be building a rapport with EU and Russia for ensuring more favorable conditions of economic restructuring. However, in the case with Europe, it will require democratization of social and political life. Considering a difficulty with realization of this option, and almost lack of available specialists in the government, and minimal amount of available time, the possibility of the State choosing that option is low.

One should note that if all “reforms” are narrowed down to patching the wholes in the budget, without any significant changes and modernization of society and economy, which is evident from taxing transportation of Russian oil through Belarusian territory, some time will be won, but a critical situation will be still growing.

2. “Turning in” Belarus’ independence, conducted under the pressure from Russia, and following all political and social requirements. Introduction of single currency (Russian Ruble), establishment of a single National Bank (Russia), access of Russian enterprises and investors to Belarusian markets, taccess of Russian banks (opening up branches) to Belarusian financial market, and organizing a referendum on real formation of Union State (which would include passing a Constitutional Act). Probability of such a development is possible, however it is absolutely evident, that in such case, no one in Russia will need the present Belarusian administration, and the only thing that they might promise is a promise for high officials to preserve their property, health, life and families.

What will happen to Belarus after the realization of this plan is not clear either. It could be joining Russian Federation as several provinces; or it could be a Union State ,with Russia as a head government, or it could be an independent Belarus with Kremlin-appointed reliable leaders. An option of being an autonomous state inside Russia is also possible.

All these courses of the same option are improbable now for the reason that Belarusian population, according to sociological surveys, is strongly against the loss of their country’s independence, and with coming 2008 elections in Russia, the instability on the Western frontiers will be hardly necessary. Besides that, a new entity such as a Union State has all reasons to be recognized as illegitimate by the United States of America. Respectively, it is unlikely for Russia to go for realization of that option, not mention that Belarusian government will be abruptly against that, since it will lose independence of action.

3. Belarusian leadership ignores growing problems, or solves them ineffectively. “No worries, God will judge all accordingly” is the tune of such development. In this case, an option of further centralization with total isolation of country is possible, yet Belarus is not Cuba, and it will be hard to totally isolate it, especially if one keeps in mind the fact that it is located almost in the center of Europe. Therefore, if this option is chosen, it will be absolutely unknown what it will lead to. Then growing economic problems without solution will deepen the crisis, and a lyrical exclamation of Uładzimir Siamaška, deputy prime-minister, about “collapse of economy” will have all chances for success.

Events in such flavor could develop without any control; therefore, such a situation should be highly avoided.

In any case, a practical realization of any of these options, no matter what that would be, does carry nothing good for the Belarusian Nation. While there is still an “interstrike” between Belarusian and Russian sides, we can make a small influence on relations between the two countries wit our forces. But we need to become prepared, step by step, and to increase our activity, if in the  decisive moment we want to stand out firmly for good changes.

I think that the year of 2007 that started rapidly with a conflict of countries that de-jure make up the Union State, but de-facto already pursue their own goals, will be the year of mobilizing activity. A period of large and for gratis support of Belarusian economy from Russian Federation is coming to an end, and an issue of further functioning of Belarusian state is logically emerging from this situation. We are seriously behind our small Baltic neighbors, who after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, were left in conditions that were not better if not worse than those of Belarus. “Belarusian economic miracle” continues to be near death, holding on to processing and transportation of hydrocarbon, and a question of Belarusian statehood is most urgent today, and it will remain so up until its resolution, starting this year. What it will be like: economy, education, domestic and foreign policies of our country; is it possible to extract reforms from this government under the pressure from neighboring states? Or will it be an encompassing modernization of Belarusian society, which can be conducted only by national elite, most of which is in opposition? These are open questions, and each of us, citizens, can offer their ways of solving it, making steps toward a new Belarusian future.

Once again, New Year started our mobilization, so we can answer these questions.