Belarus is doomed. It will be devoured by marauders…

Belarusian news agency BELTA report:

02.01.2007 16:28 Gas prices for final consumers will be more than 150 USD for 1 000 m3 in 2007.

Comment:

1. Passage from “Sidorsky’s Gas. The Contract Signed” article 01.02.06
“Lukashenka lost unaccounted money received from gas resale at the Belarusian internal market. He can do that no longer. Gas will be exported at the price of 100 USD, and it cannot be resold to Belarusian consumers two times more expensive, as it used to be when the price was 46 USD. Compensations for Beltransgaz will go directly into the national budget. Consequently, Belarusian president is left without “gas” money. It is a significant failure…”

2. Passage from “Limitrophes” article 13.09.06
“In a majority of states situated in the western part of the former USSR the “limitrophe” foreign policy is diligently shared between authority and opposition. In accordance with this tradition, one of the private/open agreement’s parties plays a role of pseudo pro-Russian power; the other is literally flinging into Western arms. To work out a common policy, inherent in any normal national elite, is still beyond their abilities because despite the common ideology (“nationalism”) they yet have to fight for survival (including financial one). It divides ex-USSR elites into marauders (they usually feign to be Moscow’s allies) and compradors (they are begging for help from the West)".

In the end of February 2004, Aliaxandr Lukashenka held a press-conference in the President’s Administration. Getting use of Gazprom having had cut gas supplies to Belarus earlier, Belarusian president standing against Belarusian

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Belarusian consumers will pay not less than 150 USD. “Excess” billion will go to Cuba or China

 pipelines map was trying to explain why Russian gas delivered from Yamal to Belarusian border (3 000 kilometers) costs 46.68 USD per 1,000 cubic meters, while after being transported from Vorsha to Minsk (about 300 km it costs already 100 USD) for Belarusian consumer. Much was said about taxes (taxes on critical energy imports—we are evidently thought to be idiots), rusty pipelines maintenance, but one thing wasn’t explained: where do more than 1 bil. USD goes every year (the margin between supply and sale prices doesn’t even pass through Belarusian budget). All in all, 300 kilometers of transportation through holy Belarusian land increase the gas price by two times.

All of these are to happen again in two years…

Belarusian authorities will never give up their money. If Russia charges 100 USD, they will definitely add 50 USD. If the price is 300 USD than common Belarusians will pay 300 USD. Russia will be the one to be blamed.

All of these could have been expected: Belarusian budget is being recalculated now and one billion USD is to be added to so-called “President’s reserve fund”. More money will come from taxes and “holes” in social programs. In reality, according to our information sources, in 2007 Belarusian industry is to pay not less than 195 to 198 USD; Belarusian consumers will pay not less than 150 USD per 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas. “Excess” billion will go to Cuba or China, which is more probable. For the rest some Minsk-Arena will be built…

We should note that since 1996 the so-called “President’s reserve fund” have been increased by more than 10 billion “gas” dollars (rough calculations). How much exactly? Well, only one individual, the one who disposes this money—Belarusian president, to be more precise—knows.

It seem that severe December clash for cheap Russian gas had another good reason besides a question of power in Belarus or Putin’s friends’ affair—the problem of family’s money-box replenishment. That is why the financial aspect cleared up in one day after gas contract had been signed. Belarusian authorities are in a hurry while the information campaign “Russia is trampling its last ally, strangles Belarusian economy and Belarusian people” is in its climax. Everybody is doing his job. Somebody from TV or newspapers is lying to common people; somebody is squeezing his “share” into “Moscow” gas price.

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Belarusian president is left without “gas” money. It is a significant failure

However, it is good in a way. We’ll have much less illusions when Syamashka, Belarusian Deputy Prime Minister, or some other Belarusian blackmailers will come again to our Russian Council of Ministers or Gazprom’s office to beg for “common Belarusians”. It will be clear for whose sake and for what they are begging—for their annual billion, for their assets, houses, glass-works factories etc. Then they will shed crocodile tears: “In the conditions of present-day Belarusian economy’s state the price of 100 USD is very difficult and even nearly impossible to be paid… Belarusian government will have to work very hard over this. If the price grows, we’ll have to stint ourselves of everything” (Siarhei Sidorsky, Belarusian PM, 31.12.06). Oh, illusory hopes! These marauders will do anything except for stinting themselves… Belarus is doomed, it will be simply devoured…

Moscow, 02.01.07