A Happy Nation

I guess I am not the only one who goes back again and again to the 19-th of March events (opposition rallies against fraudulent presidential election) in order to understand, why didn’t we have a single chance to initiate changes in Belarus?It seemed to be the only moment in last 12 years when there was a strong alternative to existing regime. Authority showed its incompetence more than clearly. More than that, by its clumsy methods it provoked a critical mass of discontent of those people who had access to free information. Thus, there were enough prerequisites for moment X to be expected.

But what’s the number of those who were strongly against the regime? Let’s assume that there were 15 to 20 thousand people protesting on the main square and about 30 to 40 thousand being too afraid to come and participate. Altogether we have at best 60 thousand people who were truly for changes in a country with a population of 9 million. Analyzing different reports on that election we may assume that 30 to 40 percent of population wanted a new president. I wouldn’t mix these two categories of people because the latter could have motives of quite different matter and duration.

What can we say about other 60 to 70 percent of population? Who are they? I’m inclined to think now that they feel as masters in this long-suffering country. Isn’t it really so? Belarusian prols live now in a unique country which is totally corresponding to their needs. However it is the system itself to form these needs but in our case it is not very important. It is obvious to recall he words of a French ambassador in USSR: “They are so happy that they can’t actually imagine how bad their life is”.

It is true. The standard of living and the quality of lifestyle can be valued only through comparison. Without visa Belarusians can go only to Russia and Ukraine. When looking at ruinous pavements and closed factories in Russian and Ukrainian province one gives odds to tidy Belarus. However, to see much better quality of goods and services in EU-bottom Poland and Lithuania a Belarusian has to have a sweat to get it. Will prols do this? Why should they? They already know from Belarusian propaganda that things are going much worse in these countries.

On the other hand, what can democratic forces give them?
Justice? For prols justice is chip alcohol and “cool” cell phone. Justice is wages of 1.5 to 2 million BLR (700 to 950 USD) without any earlier education investments, especially if compared to professors’ lousy salaries.
Truth? “Sweet lies” are better than truth. For them the most important thing is to know that everything’s fine regardless of actual situation. And so our regime feeds its people with everyday propaganda and soap operas. A pure idyll!
Freedom? Who knows what freedom is? An ex-con leaving his prison? A student after successfully graduating from his college? Unfaithful husband going to a long business trip? A man who doesn’t know anything about his rights can’t even guess how much violated they are. Foreigners who get insulted by officials as early as in airport are shocked to learn that they can’t get a compensation for moral damage through Belarusian court. But is prol capable of understanding them if he’s got used to it since he was a little kid?
Maybe, labor? Why should they want to change anything? Only in Belarus managers of unprofitable enterprises cannot reduce the staff. One can go to work, do there nothing and get money for it. Even the carrier opportunities are taken into consideration in this fairy country. It is believed that in US everybody can become a millionaire. Well, in Belarus everybody can become, say, a minister of culture.

Ladies and gentlemen, we shouldn’t associate nowadays Belarus with Soviet Byelorussia. We have a quite different state system here and we use old terms just for convenience. Fathers of October revolution descended from intellectuals’ families. They destroyed all churches and tried to sublimate religion with something else but they donated yet Soviet but still culture. Just recall the Soviet theatre, literature, art. When my parents were young, all shops were full of affordable classic literature. It was in vogue to have big home libraries; it was in vogue to read…

Our current state system of values is much nearer and dearer to prols. It’s not nice to get good grades at school anymore. Why should anyone study hard to become a poor engineer when he can become a prosperous policeman without any descent education? In USSR it was common to think that all people are equal but still there was an unofficial social distance. For example, in 50s’ officials wore hats and workers wore caps and so on. But today it’s enough to listen to any of Lukashenka’s speeches to understand: there’s no any verge between supreme power and, say, some countryside tractor driver who has never left his home village.

So the question is not “What can we offer to prols?” but “How can we survive in this alien and all-sufficient country?”

However, I exaggerate a bit a verge between different sectors of society. Despite of everything our society is developing and all utopian regimes tend to play out. What’s the “half-life” of current Belarusian regime, 10 years or 100? Only future can tell.